The Fermi Paradox re-visited chapter 2 · Sunday March 15, 2026 by colin newell
I recently realized I hadn’t written much in this blog about the Fermi Paradox, though I do write about it elsewhere. So here is a quick note.
The Fermi Paradox, sometimes paraphrased as “where are they?” is a question about the apparent lack of intelligent alien life in the universe. The universe is extreme old relative to the speed of light at galactic scales. Light has been able to cross our galaxy a thousand times since the dinosaurs died out, and that was relatively recent (less than 2%) compared to the age of the Earth. So if life is common in the universe (it seems like it might be) and if intelligent life is an eventually winning strategy of evolution (it seems to be) and technological life follows from this (it has at least once) and technology leads relatively quickly to space travel and visible technosignatures (this is probably not the hard part) then why isn’t the universe teeming with alien life?
There are a bunch of potential solutions to this puzzle. I’ll mention a few before I get to my preferred one.
We haven’t looked very carefully.
Space is big. You just won’t believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it’s a long way down the road to the chemist’s, but that’s just peanuts to space.
Douglas Adams, The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.
We have only relatively tiny telescopes on one tiny planet looking out into a vast darkness. We have found only a few thousand exoplanets, of which just a handful might be able to support life. We have not a single spectra from an exoplanet atmosphere. Our nearest star Proxima Centauri has planets and we know almost nothing about them. For all we know, there’s already an advanced civilization there and we would not be able to see it. We’ve run various SETI searches for a few decades but again, barely scratched the surface. We could build much larger telescopes but even one the size of the Earth would hardly rule out intelligent life in our galaxy – much of which is obscured by dust.
At our current rate of technology, we’re not going to discover intelligent aliens unless they’re very close by and sending us very powerful radio signals, or they visit us directly.
Interstellar travel might be impossible.
The Fermi Paradox among us · Sunday March 15, 2026 by colin newell
When confronted with the topic of stars and galaxies, a question that tantalizes most humans is, “Is there other intelligent life out there?” Let’s put some numbers to it—
As many stars as there are in our galaxy (100 – 400 billion), there are roughly an equal number of galaxies in the observable universe—so for every star in the colossal Milky Way, there’s a whole galaxy out there. All together, that comes out to the typically quoted range of between 1022 and 1024 total stars, which means that for every grain of sand on every beach on Earth, there are 10,000 stars out there.
The science world isn’t in total agreement about what percentage of those stars are “sun-like” (similar in size, temperature, and luminosity)—opinions typically range from 5% to 20%. Going with the most conservative side of that (5%), and the lower end for the number of total stars (1022), gives us 500 quintillion, or 500 billion billion sun-like stars.
There’s also a debate over what percentage of those sun-like stars might be orbited by an Earth-like planet (one with similar temperature conditions that could have liquid water and potentially support life similar to that on Earth). Some say it’s as high as 50%, but let’s go with the more conservative 22% that came out of a recent PNAS study. That suggests that there’s a potentially-habitable Earth-like planet orbiting at least 1% of the total stars in the universe—a total of 100 billion billion Earth-like planets.
So there are 100 Earth-like planets for every grain of sand in the world. Think about that next time you’re on the beach.
Moving forward, we have no choice but to get completely speculative. Let’s imagine that after billions of years in existence, 1% of Earth-like planets develop life (if that’s true, every grain of sand would represent one planet with life on it). And imagine that on 1% of those planets, the life advances to an intelligent level like it did here on Earth. That would mean there were 10 quadrillion, or 10 million billion intelligent civilizations in the observable universe.
2025-The year in review · Monday December 29, 2025 by colin newell
Hey, hey! 2025 is almost done – and what do we have to show for it?
A.I. has taken over most aspects of our lives (apart from this one which is still occasionally tapped out by a human…)
Travel has become as unromantic as possible – hence I rarely travel much beyond the family room…
And flying? Well, I fly my Canadian flag with pride when the wind is gusting under 125 km/hr.
Truthfully, the last year or so I have been in Hamilton, Ontario and Calgary, Alberta.
Photo above: Coffee. Yes, it is still a thing for me!
2025 was a great year for in home cooking and broadening our culinary chops without broadening our waists.
2025 marks almost 2 years retired after 35 years + working at the local University in I.T. and tech – hardware and software support.
That old adage: “I don’t know where I found the time to work before has never been more true. I really believe that this is the most meaningful time of my life and I am happier than when I was carefree and 11 years old. Seriously.
Stuff – I do committee work with the municipality of Saanich… a couple of things… keeping me engaged… on the edge… sharp… where I gotta be…
After 16 or 17 years raising funds for Movember, I have moved onto a much more local project: The Island Prostate Cancer resource center. A great cause for men facing cancer and their families that find value in this great resource.
Music: I have been playing guitar and piano since the 1970’s – my debut album was in 2008 and that is increasingly feeling like a long time ago! Now I play around 1 hour a day – I collaborate with a few other players to make some noise with. Am I thinking long term? No, not at all.
Radio stuff: I am still doing ham radio as well as technical projects that revolve around “amateur” radio – like project building and supporting our radio community locally, regionally and internationally…
Coffee – As one of the (maybe former) authorities on the subject of cafe culture, home and office coffee and espresso based goodness… I am still picking away at my coffee project that started in 1994 — now known as CoffeeCrew.comCheck in…
Is there anyone out there? I genuinely do not hear much from anyone via this blog. It is entirely possible that I am talking to a brick wall… or a dry wall… or a wailing wall. You can send us a shout over here – anyone locally that sends me a shout, I will buy a coffee and treat – and we can talk about whatever comes up.
Colin Newell is a Victoria resident and has been writing about the subject of coffee and pop culture since the beginning of internet time…
Two tunes by Saanich vocal superstar Jeff Albert…
Avocado Brownies - or why does Pinterest suck so badly · Saturday November 29, 2025 by colin newell
Found this Pinterest recipe on the “Recipes by Honey…” Website…
which appears to be more of a front for 1000 pop-up ads before you get to the actual recipe.
Why Pinterest, why!?
My blog – coffee.bc.ca – has no popups, no shills, no tension, frustration or BS —
much like the “blog” that I nicked from “Honey…”
The brownies are currently in the oven for the first time…
We will see if this was worth the effort and frustration of wading through yet another Pinterest recipe.
For the Brownie Batter
2 medium Ripe Avocados – Ensure they are fully ripe for a creamy texture.
1 cup Granulated Sugar – consider substituting with honey or maple syrup.
1/2 cup Cocoa Powder – consider unsweetened for richer flavour.
1 teaspoon Pure Vanilla Extract.
1/2 cup All-Purpose Flour Can – you substitute with gluten-free options.
1 teaspoon Baking Powder
1/4 teaspoon Salt – It balances sweetness.
Optional Add-Ins
1/2 cup Nuts or Chocolate Chips can be added for crunch and indulgence.
1/4 cup Peanut Butter Swirl in before baking for added flavor.
Step by step guide to preparation
Grab your KitchenAid or mixmaster (you could also use a Vitamix — but set aside more clean up time!)
The Wet Mix
In the mixmaster (or blender) Mash avocados until they are creamy with no lumps (and of course – it goes without saying… you cut open the avocado, removing the skin and the seed… the skin and the seed goes into the compost!)
In this instance, I added 1/2 cup granulated sugar and 1/2 cup Maple Syrup for that Canadian touch!
Add in 1/2 cup fine unsweetened cocoa powder.
Drizzle in 1/2 teaspoon (or more) vanilla extract (I also contemplated adding 1/2 ounce of white rum but one must keep in mind that when adding alcohol, it can impact on how the brownies set!)
The Dry Mix
Add a teaspoon of magic baking powder to 1/2 cup standard white flour (I used bread flour without issue.)
Add the flour and leavening mix slowly to the “wet” mix… Do not over mix please…
Add ons
I added a tablespoon or two of creamy peanut butter at the very end of mixing (for something of a swirl effect…) Let’s see how that works out.
I used an 8” x 8” purpose made brownie pan – lined with parchment paper and sprayed with Pam - cooking spray.
Move your batter from its mixing vessel into the baking tray and level out the brownie mix – try and get as even a layer as possible. With this batch size the batter will be about 1/2” thick or so on the bottom of the tray.
Bake at 350 degrees (F) for 25-35 minutes… or when a toothpick goes in and comes out clean!
Important Rule says – Let the brownies cool for an hour before you attempt to cut them.
Taste test These are crazy creamy and awesome! I could have added another bit of nut butter up to maybe 1/4 cup AND some finely ground or coarsely chopped nuts – despite my frustration with the Pinterest mega-ad BS, this recipe is a win! Thank you “Honey…”
This blog entry is dedicated to our longest long suffering reader-fan of the CoffeeCrew blog... with me for almost 20 years if not more! Hey Oh Jeanie Marie!
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